On Reform Intensity under Uncertainty

SIMON JOHNSON Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)PANOS KOUVELIS Washington University and VIKAS SINHA IBM - General

Abstract:

We model policy reform as a way to affect the stochastic process of relative returns that firms face when switching from old to new activities. This stochastic process has an Ito process component that is noncontrollable and policy reforms result in jumps in relative returns that arrive according to a Poisson process. The intensity of policy reform depends on the arrival rate and magnitude of jumps. We use a single firm model to understand the reaction of the firm to such a stochastic process and the usual hysteresis results in switching between old and new activities. Aggregation to the level of all firms leads to an appropriate definition of the government payoff function, and we use this to obtain the optimal level of reform. The results are as follows: there exists and optimal level of radical reform that overcomes the hysteresis behavior of firms; if such a level is not desirable, then the intensity of policy reform is not an extreme point; and this gradual level of optimal reform is lower if uncertainty is higher.

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